摘要： 目的 研究《高原气象》来稿量的年际变化特征和月份效应,并进行原因分析,深入了解作者的投稿行为,以期为科学办刊提供数据支持,并为科技期刊的可持续发展提供借鉴。方法 主要利用OriginPro 8软件提供的箱线图分析、线性回归分析和Pearson相关性分析等方法研究来稿量在不同时间尺度上的变化特征,并探讨其原因。结果 《高原气象》来稿量在2009—2014年基本呈线性增加趋势;在2015—2019年,则呈线性减少趋势。在月尺度上呈现出“单月高,双月低”的特征,并存在2—3月和10—11月效应,即2月最低,10月次低,3月最高,11月次高,其中2—3月效应尤为突出。结论 持续较高的退稿率和影响因子的下降可能是来稿量降低的两个主要原因。月份效应主要与工作时间和潜在来稿量的积压有关。期刊可通过调整退稿率来改善期刊来稿情况,并通过时间效应分析来均衡期刊来稿量,从而整体提升稿件的评审质量和时效。
关键词:
科技期刊,
来稿量,
退稿率,
影响因子,
投稿,
时间效应
Abstract:
[Purposes] This study aims to analyze the interannual variation characteristics and monthly effects of amount of contributions submitted to Plateau Meteorology and the corresponding causes for further understanding of the authors' submission behavior, so as to provide data support for the operation and the sustainable development of scientific journals. [Methods] We mainly used the box graph analysis, linear regression analysis, and Pearson correlation analysis provided by the software of OriginPro 8 to study the trend characteristics of the amount of contributions in different time scales and explore the corresponding causes. [Findings] The amount of contributions in Plateau Meteorology increased linearly from 2009 to 2014, and decreased linearly from 2015 to 2019. On the monthly scale, it shows the characteristics of high in odd number month and low in even number month, and has the February-March and October-November effects, that is, the lowest in February and lower in October, the highest in March and higher in November. The February-March effect is particularly prominent. [Conclusions] The consistently high rejection rate and the decline in impact factors may be the two main reasons for the reduction in the amount of contributions. The month effect is mainly related to the number of working days and the backlog of potential contributions. Journals can improve the submission status by adjusting the rejection rate and balance the amount of contributions through time effect analysis, thereby improving the review quality and timeliness of contributions.
Key words:
Scientific journal,
Amount of contributions,
Rejection rate,
Impact factor,
Submission,
Time effect
叶喜艳, 常宗强, 张静辉, 马瀚青, 陶华. 科技期刊来稿量年际变化与月份效应研究及启示——《高原气象》实证分析[J]. 中国科技期刊研究, 2020, 31(6): 710-716.
YE Xiyan, CHANG Zongqiang, ZHANG Jinghui, MA Hanqing, TAO Hua. Research and enlightenment of interannual changes and monthly effects of amount of contributions submitted to scientific journals: An empirical analysis of Plateau Meteorology[J]. Chinese Journal of Scientific and Technical Periodicals, 2020, 31(6): 710-716.