摘要：

【目的】为揭示影响科技期刊数字化传播效能的内在机制,构建一个层级清晰、因果明确的分析框架,破解数字化转型中的要素协同困境。【方法】采用文献分析方法确定影响因素,通过专家咨询法获取因素间的影响数据,基于复杂系统理论,采用DEMATEL与ISM模型构建混合研究框架,获取影响矩阵并提取系统中心度与原因度指标,进而划分要素层次结构并解构作用机制。【结果】识别技术支撑、内容适配、用户激活、运营创新、政策调控与渠道拓展6个维度14项关键影响因素。用户参与运营策略在传播网络中具有最高中心度,发挥枢纽作用;内容智能推荐算法与开放科学政策激励构成系统的主要驱动因素;品牌IP化建设能力与读者社群活跃度为结果型要素,依赖系统其他因素支持。系统结构呈现6层递阶特征,构建起“品牌蓄能-运营驱动-政策支撑-技术调节-目标达成”的纵向传导路径与横向协同机制。【结论】科技期刊数字化传播效能的提升需实现技术赋能、制度创新与用户运营的三维协同,政策工具与智能技术的动态适配是破解传播协同困境的关键。研究结果为构建智能出版时代下学术传播新生态提供了理论支撑与实践路径。

关键词: 科技期刊, 数字化传播, DEMATEL-ISM模型, 系统层级结构

Abstract:

[Purposes] This study aims to construct a hierarchical and causally explicit analytical framework to identify key drivers and reveal the internal mechanisms influencing the digital dissemination effectiveness of scientific journals. [Methods] Through literature review, core influencing factors were identified. Data on inter-factor relationships were collected via expert consultation. Based on complex system theory, a hybrid analytical framework combining DEMATEL (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory)and ISM (interpretive structural modeling) models was employed. An influence matrix was established, and centrality and cause degree indices were extracted to classify hierarchical structures and interpret mechanism pathways. [Findings] Fourteen key influencing factors were identified across six dimensions: technological support, content adaptation, user activation, operational innovation, policy regulation, and channel expansion. Among them, user engagement strategies exhibited the highest centrality, serving as a pivotal hub within the dissemination network. Intelligent content recommendation algorithms and open science policy incentives were found to be the main driving forces of the system. Brand IP development capabilities and community activeness of readers were positioned as outcome variables, heavily dependent on other systemic elements. The overall system exhibited a six-level hierarchical structure, forming a vertical transmission path and horizontal synergy mechanism characterized by “brand accumulation-operational drive-policy support-technological adjustment-goal achievement”. [Conclusions] Enhancing the effectiveness of digital dissemination in scientific journals requires a synergistic approach involving technological empowerment, institutional innovation, and user engagement. The dynamic adaptation between policy tools and intelligent technologies plays a crucial role in overcoming coordination bottlenecks. This study offers both theoretical insights and practical guidance for building a new scholarly communication ecosystem in the era of intelligent publishing.

Key words: Scientific journals, Digital communication, DEMATEL-ISM, System hierarchy structure