摘要：

【目的】 针对现有学术期刊综合评价方法大多为静态且未考虑学术期刊发展趋势的问题,提出一种考虑发展趋势的学术期刊动态综合评价模型。【方法】 选取2014—2018年农业经济类期刊为研究对象,引入发展因子来表征指标得分的发展趋势,基于熵权法确定指标的权重,并在此基础上利用Heronian算子计算静态综合评价值;最后,基于厚今薄古的思想确定时间权重,并利用改进的灰色关联度分析(Grey Relation Analysis, GRA)法计算动态综合评价值。【结果】 该模型能够充分考虑学术期刊的发展趋势,得到较为客观、合理的学术期刊评价结果。【结论】 该模型能够较好地呈现学术期刊各指标的发展状况,可为期刊发展提出相应策略;该模型能够得到激励后学术期刊的各年静态综合评价值,可对学术期刊未来发展状况进行较好预测;该模型能够得到较为科学、合理的期刊排名,为学者发表研究成果、科研机构制定期刊目录、图书馆部门采购期刊等实际问题提供参考。

关键词: 期刊评价, 动态评价, 发展趋势, Heronian, 灰色关联度分析

Abstract:

[Purposes] Aiming at the problem that most of comprehensive evaluation methods for academic journals are static and have not considered the development tendency of academic journals, this paper proposes a new dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of academic journals considering the development tendency. [Methods] The agricultural economy journals from 2014 to 2018 were selected as the research objects,and the development factor was introduced to express the tendency of index scores. Then, the entropy method was used to determine index weight, and the static comprehensive evaluation value was calculated by Heronian operator. Finally, the time weight was gained based on the concept which implies laying more stress on the present information than on the past, and the dynamic comprehensive evaluation value was calculated by the improved grey relation analysis (GRA) method. [Findings] The results show that this model can fully consider the development tendency of academic journals and can get a reasonable comprehensive evaluation result. [Conclusions] This model can clearly show the development tendency of academic journal's index, and can propose corresponding strategies for the development of academic journals. This model can obtain the static comprehensive evaluation value of academic journals after getting stimulation, which can forecast the future development tendency of academic journals. This model can obtain a scientific and reasonable ranking of journals, which can give some references for scholars to publish their research results, scientific research institutions to develop journal bibliography, library department to purchase journals,and other realistic problems.

Key words: Journal evaluation, Dynamic evaluation, Development tendency, Heronian, Grey relation analysis