摘要：

【目的】以《国际科技出版趋势2028》（STM Trends 2028）为参考，展望中国科技期刊发展走向，力求与西方期刊研究者形成学术层面的对话与交流。【方法】采用对比分析法、案例分析法和总结归纳法，探讨STM Trends 2028形成趋势判断的原因，从中国期刊界的视角对STM Trends 2028的内容进行印证和回应，并分析STM Trends 2028的不足。【结果】西方科技期刊界由于过于关注商业利润，已经开始与学术界形成裂缝，中国科技期刊界须有所警醒，避免重蹈覆辙；在人工智能应用等方面，西方科技期刊界与国内同行判断一致，都认为人工智能将是科技期刊的重要发展方向；西方科技期刊界对于政府的作用重视不够，但对于中国科技期刊而言，政府是非常重要的支持力量。【结论】中国科技期刊界要辩证看待西方经验，既要学习他们的成功经验，也要在实践中发现他们的不足，同时还要梳理中国科技期刊的特点，进而形成具有中国特色的科技期刊发展道路。

关键词: 中国科技期刊, STM Trends 2028, 发展趋势, 人工智能, 商业化

Abstract:

［Purposes］ Based on STM Trends 2028, this study explores the future development trends of Chinese scientific journals, aiming to foster academic dialogue and exchange with Western journal researchers. ［Methods］ We used comparative analysis, case study, and summarization methods to explore the reasons for the formation of trend judgment in STM Trends 2028, verify and respond to the content of STM Trends 2028 from the perspective of the Chinese journal industry, and analyze the shortcomings of STM Trends 2028. ［Findings］ Western scientific journal industry has begun to diverge from the academic world due to an excessive focus on commercial profits. The Chinese scientific journal community should remain vigilant to avoid repeating these mistakes. There is consensus among Western scientific journal industry and domestic peers that artificial intelligence will be a significant development direction for scientific journals. Western scientific journals often underappreciate the role of government; however, for Chinese scientific journals, the government is a crucial driving force. ［Conclusions］ Chinese scientific journal community should critically assess Western experiences, learning from their successes, while identifying their shortcomings. In addition, it should define the characteristics of Chinese scientific journals to develop a path that reflects Chinese characteristics.

Key words: Chinese scientific journal, STM Trends 2028, Development trend, Artificial intelligence, Commercialization