摘要：

【目的】 从不同维度探讨期刊载文量和影响因子在近5年的动态变化，并研究载文量的增加对期刊影响因子和期刊引证指数（Journal Citation Indicator，JCI）的影响。【方法】 选择Web of Science （WoS）数据库中2018—2022年连续被SCI收录的8094种期刊作为研究对象，分别对各年度载文量、影响因子进行统计和对比，并选择不同年度的载文量与影响因子和JCI进行分析。【结果】 各年度总载文量以增加为主，但是载文量增加为主的期刊数少于载文量减少为主的期刊数。年度刊均影响因子总体呈增长趋势，影响因子上升的期刊数明显多于下降的期刊数。不同国家/地区、不同学科的期刊载文量和影响因子大多在2020年的上升幅度最大，于2022年出现近5年的首次下降。中国期刊的载文量和影响因子均呈现出稳健增长的态势。载文量增加的期刊中，影响因子上升的期刊数量多于下降的期刊数量，但JCI的变化趋势相反。期刊载文量增加对影响因子和JCI的影响没有统计学意义（P>0.05）。【结论】 年度总载文量的变化与载文量变化的期刊数表现出明显不一致，年度影响因子上升与各期刊影响因子逐年变化呈现高度一致性。近年来中国的SCI期刊载文数量与质量稳步提升。载文量和影响因子之间不存在相关性，试图通过压缩载文量来提升期刊影响因子缺乏科学性。

关键词: 科技期刊, 载文量, 影响因子, 期刊引证指数, 动态变化

Abstract:

[Purposes] This study aims to explore the dynamic trend of the number of journal papers and impact factors in the past five years from different dimensions and investigate the impact of the increase of the paper quantity on impact factors and the Journal Citation Indicator (JCI). [Methods] From the Web of Science (WoS) database, 8094 journals continuously indexed by Science Citation Index (SCI) from 2018–2022 were chosen as the research subjects. We conducted statistical analysis and comparison of the paper quantity and impact factors across these five years. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship among the paper quantity, impact factors, and JCI across the five years. [Findings] The total quantity of papers published annually is on the rise, while the number of journals that primarily experience an increase in paper quantity is less than that with a decrease. The overall trend for the annual average impact factors is upward, with a significantly higher number of journals reporting an increase in impact factors compared to those with a decrease. In various countries and regions and across different disciplines, the greatest increase in both the paper quantity and impact factors occurred in 2020, with the first decline observed in 2022 over the past five years. China's journals have consistently shown robust growth in both paper quantity and impact factors. Among journals with increased paper quantity, there are more journals with an increase in impact factors than those with a decrease, but the situation is reversed for the JCI. The increase in journal paper quantity does not have a statistically significant correlation with changes in impact factors and JCI (P>0.05). [Conclusions] The variations in the annual total paper quantity are markedly inconsistent with the changes in the paper quantity across individual journals. The annual increase in the impact factors shows a high degree of consistency with the year-on-year changes in the JIF of each journal. In recent years, there has been a steady enhancement in both the quantity and quality of papers published in China's SCI journals. There is no correlation between the paper quantity and the JIF, and the attempt to raise the JIF by reducing the paper quantity lacks scientific validity.

Key words: Science journal, Paper quantity, Impact factor, Journal Citation Indicator, Dynamic change