摘要：

目的 探析发表时滞与论文影响力的关系,寻找使论文影响力最大化的理想时滞区间,构建了发表时滞与论文影响力关系数学模型。方法 采集2013年图书情报学中文核心期刊论文的发表时滞和被引频次数据,利用双参数威布尔分布的概率密度函数,分别对采集到的3785篇论文的发表时滞的概率分布、发表时滞与论文影响力的关系曲线进行拟合。结果 2013年能使论文影响力最大化的理想发表时滞区间为31至210天,当年论文发表时滞的实际分布区间与理想状态尚存差距。结论 进一步分析认为论文的影响力与其发表时滞的长短存在相关关系,存在能使论文影响力最大化的理想时滞区间,但发表时滞并非越短越好,预测国内期刊论文发表时滞有进一步缩短的趋势。

关键词: 发表时滞, 论文影响力, 被引频次, 威布尔分布

Abstract:

[Purposes] In order to explore the relation between the publication delay and the impact of articles, this paper seeks the ideal delay intervalwhich w illmake the fulluse of the impactof articles,and constructs themathematicalmodelwhich illustrates the relation mentioned above.[Methods] We collected the data of the publication delay and the cited frequency of the Chinese core journal articles on the theme of library and information science in 2013,adopted the probability density function of the two-parameter Weibull Distribution, and fit the probability distribution of the publication delay, the relation curve of the publication delay and the impact of articles respectively based on the 3785 theses collected.[Findings] The ideal delay interval which would make the full use of the impact of articleswas31-210 days in 2013;there was still a gap between the actual distribution interval and the ideal one.[Conclusions] A fter a deeper analysis, it is safe to say that there is a certain relation between the impact of articles and the length of the publication delay.There is an ideal delay interval which w illmake the full use of the impact of articles; however, not the shorter,the better.A predication has been given that the publication delay of articles in domestic journalsw ill become shorter.

Key words: Publication dselay, Impact of articles, Cited frequency, Weibull Distribution