摘要：

【目的】提出反映科技期刊行业宏观发展趋势的科技期刊景气指数,以综合监测、评估、预测科技期刊行业运行动态。【方法】借鉴宏观经济学理论,采用合成指数编制原理,考虑科技期刊行业政策、收益、从业者、学术质量等多维指标,编制科技期刊景气指数,并基于1999—2016年国家统计局、新闻出版总署统计年报、《中国科技期刊引证报告》等多源事实型数据对我国科技期刊行业发展景气指数进行实证研究。【结果】目前,中国科技期刊行业发展景气指数仍处于上行周期,仅增速出现波动。经过多阶段的快速提升,行业景气指数迈上新的台阶,并将继续保持扩张趋势。【结论】景气指数能够反映科技期刊行业发展的实际,可以为行业发展景气程度的评估预测提供参考。

关键词: 科技期刊, 行业发展, 景气指数, 科研评价

Abstract:

[Purposes] This paper proposes a climate index of scientific journals that reflects the macro development trend of the industry of scientific journals, to monitor, evaluate, and predict the dynamics of scientific journal industry. [Methods] Based on the macro-economic theory and the principle of composite index compilation, we built the climate index by considering the multi-indicators of industry policies, income, practitioners, and academic quality. Based on the statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the State Administration of Press and Publication, and Chinese S&T Journal Citation Reports from 1999 to 2016, an empirical study was conducted on the development index of scientific journal industry in China. [Findings] The scientific journal industry is still in an upward cycle, and only the growth rate fluctuates. After a multi-stage development, the industry prosperity index has reached a new level and will continue to maintain its expansion trend. [Conclusions] The climate index can provide the required information for the assessment of the development of scientific journal industry.

Key words: Scientific journal, Industry development, Climate index, Research assessment